Summary

The odds seem to favor a higher bitcoin price.
Low could be $3,410, but average cost of mining and fair value based on transaction volume and vendors is about $6,000.
Most common end of the year range is $16,000 to $28,000.
Breakout! Or is it? Bitcoin (BTC-USD) (COIN) (OTCQX:GBTC) seems to have finally hit bottom and broken out from its six month downtrend. I have written four bitcoin articles with the first, third, and fourth including many experimental pricing models.
Most of the models seem to point to higher prices in the long run. The third article was what I predicted to be the maximum price of bitcoin based on data from December 10, 2017. But the maximum price could be anywhere between 2021 and 2027. What about the short term? After surging nearly 1300% in 2017, bitcoin peaked at $19,343 on Sunday, December 17, 2017 and bottomed 69.2% lower at $5,957 early Tuesday, February 6, 2018. It seemed to be making a comeback, surging to $11,480 on March 4 before plunging again to $6,463 on April 1. It then bounced up to $9,827 on May 5 but failed to break its downward trend and plunged to $5,941 on June 22. After briefly moving higher, bitcoin finally broke support and fell to $5,848.28 on June 28, and now appears to be making a comeback. Was this finally the bottom, or will bitcoin fall more? What about its value based on transaction volume and vendors? Is it worthwhile to hold bitcoin? I provide updated models, an estimated maximum value, and an updated Elliot Wave graph.

Was this finally the bottom?

Based on the technicals, it probably was the bottom, at least in the short run. In the early hours of June 24, bitcoin bottomed at exactly $5,826 twice and at $5,796 about 6 hours later before moving higher. It retested the 5,800 level on June 28 and closed that day at $5,848.26. The triple bottom on the 1-year graph is starting to look more like a falling wedge. Both are reversal patterns. If the price breaks above $9,000, the target would be about $12,116 about 5-6 months after breakout. While the W%R and RSI are neither overbought nor oversold, the price increased in each of the three times the RSI and W%R were at the same level over the past year as shown by the vertical green lines. The lower Bollinger Band is $5,881.79, and the upper Bollinger Band is $6,851.52.